Were I still teaching those classes, I would now be revisiting the topic with the much more dramatic evidence from the current year. Few of my former students are likely to have missed the climate harbingers of this past spring and summer; the floods, the heat waves, and the intense storms. The brain is wired to prioritize threats that are most immediate and logic must be supported by limbic to raise the red flags that cause us to elevate such concerns in our memory centers. I believe I would now have their full attention.
Were I still teaching those classes, I would describe in detail the disasters and catastrophes from around the world since 2010 began. I would begin at home. I would ask, "How many of you experienced extreme heat on the East Coast this summer?" For those many who habitually escape to the relative coolness of Cape Cod, I would remind them of July 7 when at 5 pm the temperature remained at 95 ℉ in Hyannis, Massachusetts. According to NASA and NOAA this spring was easily the hottest January through May in the temperature record (NASA & NOAA). In Mark Lynas' book "Six Degrees" he discusses the ramifications of a 2℉ global temperature increase in the context of the summer of 2003, when averaged across the continent of Europe the temperature increased 2.3 ℃ above the norm. At that time, Great Britain experience triple digit (℉) temperatures for the first time and even Switzerland reached 104 ℉ by August. In 2003, this was the worst of the past but a harbinger of things to come. Inexperience with such temperatures, poor preparation for the possibility, and denial all played a part in the 10,000 heat stroke victims in Paris, up to 35,000 deaths in Europe all together, crop losses estimated at 12 billion dollars, and forest fires in Portugal causing another 1.5 billion dollars of damage. And according to NASA and NOAA, this current year is hotter! And not just here at home. I would ask my students if they were aware of the current conditions in Russia, where they are experiencing the longest heat wave in 1000 years. I would quote from the blog of the young actor Emile Hirsch, in Moscow to film a movie, who describes the heat and the effect of smoke from the 500 plus wild fires burning unchecked on 420,000 acres of forest. I would talk about the drownings of over 1000 Russians trying to cool off in rivers after consuming vodka. And the lack of air conditioning and other means to find relief in the normally cool but now hot and polluted city. Traveling briefly around the globe, I would point out that in Pakistan, a temperature of 129℉ was reached, the highest recorded in Asia, and in Sudan, 121℉ was reached, the highest ever in that country, and in Iraq, 125.6℉ was reached, the highest ever in that country. And coming home again, I would mention that the month of July in the U.S. was one of the hottest ever, eclipsing the July 1936 Dust Bowl record temperature.
Were I still teaching those classes, we would talk about water. While the more dramatic water related crisis portent of a warming globe is sea level rise, an underplayed symptom is the increased intensity of precipitation during storms. A study by the British government prior to 2005 found that once a century floods in that country are by 2080 expected to increase to one in three years, in part due to rain volume and increasing runoff. Too much water at once can be as devastating as too little. I would direct my class once again toward home, remembering the Midwest floods of this summer. But we would quickly travel to Pakistan to review the worst flooding that country has experienced in 80 years, effecting 20 million people from an unusually heavy monsoon that brought 12 inches of rain in 36 hours. Then to Poland, where floods caused the evacuation of 25,000 people, and on to Romania and the Ukraine where 9500 people had to be evacuated. And then, while the heat and wet of the summer still surrounds us, we would remember the devastating snow events of the winter of 2010: the blizzards of the United States east coast, mud slides in South America, and unprecedented winter weather around the world .
Were I still teaching those classes, I would teach that climate change is real and inevitable, and while it may seem to stabilize in some years, or happen there but not here, change - difficult and uncomfortable change - will inevitably occur. And as leaders, we must stop thinking 'if' and begin planning for 'when'.
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