Having heard little about global warming in recent months I thought I should take a quick look at how we are progressing.
Computer models suggest that from the start of this new century to its end the average mean temperature of the planet will increase anywhere from a minimum of 1.5 degrees Centigrade to a maximum of 5.8 degrees Centigrade.
The NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA graph for global mean temperature rise over land and ocean shows that there has been an increase of .9 degrees Centigrade in the 100 years from 1910 to 2010, or .009 degrees C per year. But from 1975 to 2005 the increase has been .55 degrees C of temperature rise, or roughly .018 degrees per year average. By the time Mark Lynas' Six Degrees was published in 2008 the planet had already warmed about .15 degrees Centigrade from the beginning of the century, or about .019 degrees per year of global temperature rise. If that rate of increase is maintained, my math puts us at 1.9 degrees of global temperature increase by the year 2100, slightly above the projected minimum. But here is the bad news. When you consider that since 1910 there have been two major cooling periods, from 1945-50 and 1960-65 and two minor cooling periods, from 1973-76 and 1980-84 which prevented a more precipitous rise, one wonders what the global temperature might currently have been without those occurrences. Yet they did happen. Clearly the warming of a planet is a complex and unpredictable event. But it is also clear that the rate of global warming has increasing decade by decade the last century. The rate of temperature increase essentially doubled in the second half of the last 100 years. If it doubles and redoubles in the next 100 years the rate of temperature rise could reach .076 degrees C temperature rise per year and we might well find ourselves much closer to the high end of those global temperature projections by 2100. There is little evidence to suggest that the current rate of increase will abate.
The stimulus for his book Six Degrees was data Lynas had collected while researching an earlier book, data with which he was able to create a chronology of events projected to occur with each degree of global temperature increase at the time of publication to a potentiality of six degrees centigrade of warming. I was curious to revisit those projections one decade later and about .188 degrees C warmer with reference to his first chapter, One Degree.
Prediction: Lynas begins with the southwestern United States and a projection of increasingly arid conditions. One symptom he describes is the increase of dust storms, with entire towns engulfed in blowing sand and millions of square miles of farmland becoming too dry for agriculture.
Fact: Both Arizona and Texas have experienced mammoth dust storms in 2011. The July dust storm in Phoenix was termed the largest in 30 years. Texas and much of the Southwest have experienced unusual drought conditions.
Projection: Increased monsoonal rainfall in the eastern United States.
Fact: The NOAA reports record rainfall this year to date for the Northeast. The Northeast Climate Region showed three times the normal value while the South Climate Region showed twice the normal value.
Projection: Melting Arctic ice will change weather patterns as the polar front moves north.
Fact: According to NISCD (National Snow and Ice Data Center) Ice extent for October 2011 was the second lowest in the satellite record for the month, behind 2007. Between 1979 and 2001, it was found that the position of the jet stream has been moving northward at a rate of 2.01 kilometers (1.25 mi) per year across the Northern Hemisphere. Across North America, this type of change could lead to drier conditions across the southern tier of the United States.
Projection: Severe bleaching will occur in most of the world's reefs.
Fact: The Queensland Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency reports that as a result of this prolonged increase in sea surface temperatures, the Great Barrier Reef has recently experienced a number of coral bleaching events. Sea temperature and ocean acidity are steadily rising.
Projection: One degree of warming could put the North American Pika over the brink to extinction.
Fact: The reviews here are mixed. The journal Ecology has found that the Rocky mountain Pika is not nearing extinction, at least right now. They plan to keep an eye on it after the snow pack melts. But the courts in California have twice asked the California Fish and Game Commission to rethink its position on not listing the Pika as endangered.
Projection: The extinction of the Golden Toad in Costa Rica's Moteverdi Rain Forest has likely occurred.
Fact: None have been seen since 1989.
Projection: The possibility of a hurricane in the Mediterranean.
Fact: Depression 99L, named 'Rolf' November 8, 2011. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) gave 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. Damage in the Aeolian Islands suggests wind velocity reached 72 mph, but not officially: the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the area.
Projection: Pacific atolls of Tuvalu to succumb to sea rise.
Fact: Tuvalu is still with us. However, Tuvalu has declared a state of emergency because of a shortage of fresh water. Subterranean water has apparently been compromised due to the rising sea level. Drought conditions have exacerbated the situation.
The above are just a few of the concerns projected for a planet one degree warmer. Many of the projections are generalized and difficult to research. However, on the whole, it appears that global warming is alive and well.
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