It's Time To Choose

Today, right now, California is facing a decision, possibly the most consequential decision in the history of the state. It is simply, oil or water? Now is the time; this decision cannot be postponed. Once the leash restraining the oil companies has been released there is no going back.

California has outpaced other states regulating fracking. Santa Barbara County, and now Sacramento are taking the issue seriously. The oil companies recognize that Frack is a four letter word and are avoiding it, if not in practice, very definitely in vocabulary.

But some California agencies, as if driven by feelings of guilt for a regulatory hard line on fracking, are now quite willing to accept cyclic steam injection and other methods oil drillers propose. And California legislators and administrators are being successfully wooed by the economic promise oil companies like to make. Let us in, they say, and there will be jobs, jobs, jobs. Maybe. But for whom?

The Monterey and Sisquoc shale oil play is located in a region roughly from Monterey County south into Ventura County, and in some locations west almost to the Sierras. These counties are on the front lines in the war between oil and water. And more specifically, the Santa Barbara County Planning Commission is currently under the gun. They have postponed a proposal by Santa Maria Energy to drill 110 wells using cyclic steam injection in the Careaga Oil Field in Orcutt. Their concern is emissions. But should it also be water?

That four letter word, Frack, has not been mentioned. The proposal is for cyclic steam injection. We know that fracking requires a tremendous amount of water. But what is known about the amounts of water used in cyclic steam injection?

In his article 'Water Use Concerns Flood Frac Meetings and DOGGR Workshops Statewide' (Apr 6th, 2013) Tomas DiFiore* suggests that the cyclic steam injection method might actually use more water than fracking. The problem is, the former method has drawn far less attention than fracking, and has, after all, been in use in California since the 1950's. Numbers of wells and data regarding water use have not been tracked.

But we do know this: one small company, in one oil field converts 60 Million Gallons of water per day into steam and injects it into wells to make heavy oil flow.

Viewed another way, says DiFiore, "In one week, in one oil field, the yearly water usage of between 3,500 – 7,000 California families is pumped down into the ground, as steam. It comes back out with the oil, as product water, to evaporate in unlined pits, and toxic ponds." That's a lot of water. But agricultural use of water is generally 36 times that of oil drilling! How can our aquifers sustain all of that?

The increased emissions hazard potential from heating water into steam is a concern, no doubt. But in a world where the effects of global warming have already begun, and with increased dryness and diminishing water resources in the West, my most immediate concern is to have enough water to drink and to grow my food.

California, like most of the Southwest, is currently experiencing drought. The Los Alamos aquifers are in overdraft. In the Cuyama Valley water has become a serious concern. That region will not be alone in this danger for very long. In the face of general global warming, it is unlikely that this drought is a one and done situation. Something's got to give - and you can't drink oil.

Another Glance at Global Warming

The recent publishing of Barbara Kingsolver's latest novel, Flight Behavior (a drama created around the topic of climate change) inspired me to check in on what's going on, or up, with the climate.

On November 16, 2011 I published a post reviewing the increment of change in global warming based upon the predictions of Mark Lynas' 2008 book, Six Degrees. My post, titled At .188 Degrees Centigrade Warmer: All Is Well? is available for review in the archives of this blog.

I think it's time to take another look, but perhaps in a less detailed way, at Mr. Lynas' projections. To catch us up, Tuvalu (that group of islands in the Pacific) is still with us, although island overlapping is projected to occur mid to late this century. The rate of sea rise in that part of the Pacific Ocean is measured at 5.1 mm per year. That may seem slow - unless you live there.

Since 2011 the sea and & air surface temperature anomaly average was approximately .05 Degrees C of increase (over 2 years), slightly more comforting than the 2011 measurement of .188 degrees C of warming at that time (over four years). But before we grow ecstatic, remember that there have been flat periods before, yet the steady rise continued after them. In fact, every NOAA or NCDC or NESDIS graph related to global warming tends to look like a series of North Korean rocket launches: severe ups and immediate downs. But the average of the anomalies is steadily upward. With climate change, it is important to look at the big picture.

Lynas' prediction of increasingly arid conditions in the southwest United States is bang on. The drought we are currently experiencing began in 2012, the hottest year on record in the U.S., with several weeks in a row of 100-plus degree days in various regions. The result was drought conditions for a full two-thirds of the country.

His prediction of monsoonal rainfall in the eastern United States continues to be accurate. December 2012 ranked among the top 20 wettest in ten states. Again extremes, as predicted: the wet get wetter, the hot get hotter. There have been larger and more intense storms (the Oklahoma tornadoes, as just one example). Drier windy conditions are causing greater fire danger. Elsewhere there have been deep, debilitating snows, even in places unaccustomed to them…all as predicted.

In regard to Polar ice melt predictions, a clear trend has emerged over the space of a decade or more, showing a decrease of about 5% of average sea-ice cover per decade. While sea ice extent recovered slightly during the Arctic winters of 2008-09, the full extent of annual ice reduction or gain is seen in September of each year, at the end of the Arctic summer. That measure suggests the volume of multi-year ice has not recovered at all, and is in fact showing a steeply negative trend. (Polar Science Center, U of Washington)

It might be relevant to take a peek at the extinctions of species since 2008. In that year the Liverpool Pigeon was thought to be extinct. In 2010 we lost the Alaotra Grebe. In 2011 the Eastern Cougar and the Western Black Rhinoceros were declared extinct. The Japanese River Otter became extinct in 2012. That same year we lost "Lonesome George", the only remaining Pinta Island Tortoise. This year the Formosan Clouded Leopard disappeared from the earth. I do not claim that the sole cause of these extinctions was global warming. Yet we know that animal habitats are changing extremely rapidly, and some species simply lack the flexibility to adapt.

It appears that the warming of our globe is marching inexorably on. This march seems ponderous and slow. But we must reckon with momentum. Like a snowball rolling down hill, climate change gathers speed as it occurs, accelerated by more exposed seas, more gases released by melting perms-frost, and a host of other small but cumulatively important factors that will cause every symptom to grow in size and intensity. Yes, the march of global warming seems slow - unless you live there.

You may have noticed a hiatus from this column for several months, that due to publishing and re-publishing my new novel, final edits on my second (due September 1), and the development of a new website for my fiction and music. From this point onward I will post a column every fourth Wednesday of the month.