The recent publishing of Barbara Kingsolver's latest novel, Flight Behavior (a drama created around the topic of climate change) inspired me to check in on what's going on, or up, with the climate.On November 16, 2011 I published a post reviewing the increment of change in global warming based upon the predictions of Mark Lynas' 2008 book, Six Degrees. My post, titled At .188 Degrees Centigrade Warmer: All Is Well? is available for review in the archives of this blog.
I think it's time to take another look, but perhaps in a less detailed way, at Mr. Lynas' projections. To catch us up, Tuvalu (that group of islands in the Pacific) is still with us, although island overlapping is projected to occur mid to late this century. The rate of sea rise in that part of the Pacific Ocean is measured at 5.1 mm per year. That may seem slow - unless you live there.
Since 2011 the sea and & air surface temperature anomaly average was approximately .05 Degrees C of increase (over 2 years), slightly more comforting than the 2011 measurement of .188 degrees C of warming at that time (over four years). But before we grow ecstatic, remember that there have been flat periods before, yet the steady rise continued after them. In fact, every NOAA or NCDC or NESDIS graph related to global warming tends to look like a series of North Korean rocket launches: severe ups and immediate downs. But the average of the anomalies is steadily upward. With climate change, it is important to look at the big picture.
Lynas' prediction of increasingly arid conditions in the southwest United States is bang on. The drought we are currently experiencing began in 2012, the hottest year on record in the U.S., with several weeks in a row of 100-plus degree days in various regions. The result was drought conditions for a full two-thirds of the country.
His prediction of monsoonal rainfall in the eastern United States continues to be accurate. December 2012 ranked among the top 20 wettest in ten states. Again extremes, as predicted: the wet get wetter, the hot get hotter. There have been larger and more intense storms (the Oklahoma tornadoes, as just one example). Drier windy conditions are causing greater fire danger. Elsewhere there have been deep, debilitating snows, even in places unaccustomed to them…all as predicted.
In regard to Polar ice melt predictions, a clear trend has emerged over the space of a decade or more, showing a decrease of about 5% of average sea-ice cover per decade. While sea ice extent recovered slightly during the Arctic winters of 2008-09, the full extent of annual ice reduction or gain is seen in September of each year, at the end of the Arctic summer. That measure suggests the volume of multi-year ice has not recovered at all, and is in fact showing a steeply negative trend. (Polar Science Center, U of Washington)
It might be relevant to take a peek at the extinctions of species since 2008. In that year the Liverpool Pigeon was thought to be extinct. In 2010 we lost the Alaotra Grebe. In 2011 the Eastern Cougar and the Western Black Rhinoceros were declared extinct. The Japanese River Otter became extinct in 2012. That same year we lost "Lonesome George", the only remaining Pinta Island Tortoise. This year the Formosan Clouded Leopard disappeared from the earth. I do not claim that the sole cause of these extinctions was global warming. Yet we know that animal habitats are changing extremely rapidly, and some species simply lack the flexibility to adapt.
It appears that the warming of our globe is marching inexorably on. This march seems ponderous and slow. But we must reckon with momentum. Like a snowball rolling down hill, climate change gathers speed as it occurs, accelerated by more exposed seas, more gases released by melting perms-frost, and a host of other small but cumulatively important factors that will cause every symptom to grow in size and intensity. Yes, the march of global warming seems slow - unless you live there.
You may have noticed a hiatus from this column for several months, that due to publishing and re-publishing my new novel, final edits on my second (due September 1), and the development of a new website for my fiction and music. From this point onward I will post a column every fourth Wednesday of the month.
